It's 2030. You decide where the world's data centres get their power.
The IEA expects data centres to need about 950 TWh in 2030. In 2024 their electricity put out about 180 million tonnes of CO2. Mix the grids they plug into, and choose how efficient AI gets.
CO2 from data-centre electricity in 2030
449 million tonnes a year
White line: 2024, 180 million tonnes (IEA)
Electricity
950 TWh a year
IEA forecast for 2030
Water (cooling + power plants)
2,413 billion litres
range 114 to 5,206
Emissions 2.5 times 2024's. Where data centres plug in matters as much as how much they use.
One grid at a time
If all of 2030's 950 TWh came from one kind of grid, with no extra efficiency:
| Grid | g CO2 per kWh | Million tonnes CO2 |
|---|---|---|
| India-like grid | 708 | 673 |
| China-like grid | 560 | 532 |
| World average | 473 | 449 |
| US-like grid | 384 | 365 |
| Clean-power deals | 125 | 119 |
Grid intensities are 2024 figures (Ember; clean-power deals: Google's market-based figure), so real 2030 grids will be somewhat cleaner. Efficiency at 100% is the IEA's High Efficiency case: about 19% less electricity than its base case (from its 2035 figures, 970 vs 1,200 TWh). Water uses the middle litres per kWh. Dotted numbers are calculated. How we know